Risk monitor
Twelve tripwires in three classes — strategic anchors, cyclical confirmation, tactical stress. Each carries a live value, a warn level, a trigger level, the distance between them and the tier of the source it came from.
Titled by scope on purpose. Every deterministic source below is a US publisher — FRED, BLS, ISM, FINRA, TreasuryDirect, Shiller, Treasury customs. Non-US coverage is not built yet and the title does not imply it. This surface reports observations only; what we make of them is on the posture map.
A single composite over heterogeneous components can only be checked against its components, so both are published on the same screen. The composite and each component read on a 0.00 to 1.00 scale where higher is stronger, so 0.50 is the midpoint of the scale and not a neutral or historically normal reading.
Composite score
Regime reading
Data as of
Component breakdown
Each component on the same 0.00 to 1.00 scale, higher is stronger. A bar is the value itself, not a probability and not a percentile against history.
System average score across issues
The system average score from every published issue, oldest first, on a −1.00 to +1.00 scale where higher is less stressed. This is not the composite above: that runs 0.00 to 1.00, higher is stronger, and we publish no series for it, so the headline number cannot be plotted on this axis and the two cannot be read off one line. Two issues is the minimum for a line; before that the panel says so rather than drawing one.
Domain indicators behind the composite
The individual domain readings the composite is built from, with the stress level upstream assigns to each. Where every domain carries the same stress level, that is stated once rather than repeated as a column that cannot separate the rows.
Composite macro health, its recorded trajectory, and the indicator domains behind it.
Macro health composite 0.42 on a 0.00-1.00 scale where higher is stronger. Deteriorating
Macro health is deteriorating this cycle on a compound stagflation signature: simultaneous major central bank tightening colliding with a weak US jobs print, multi-decade-high long bond yields, and a fresh NBFI redemption-gating escalation.
13 recorded readings, 2026-07-07 to 2026-10-10: 0.38 to 0.42, stronger.
Fed funds target range 3.75-4.00 percent, first hike in three years
Asymmetry Three major central banks tightening simultaneously while US labor data weakens is the stagflation signature flagged by BofA's own September survey.
September payrolls miss of 55,000 jobs below consensus
Asymmetry A single data print is conditional on the Fed near-term path, not yet confirmed as a structural labor-market turn given prior-month revisions.
Blue Owl OTIC saw 39 percent withdrawal requests, highest in sector
Asymmetry This is a fresh within-window escalation that could become structural if sustained across further quarters; currently a conditional liquidity-stress signal with direct linkage to AI-capex financing intensity.
Effective weighted tariff rate approximately 11.8 percent
Asymmetry Structurally de-escalatory versus the April 2026 peak following the SCOTUS IEEPA ruling, but the WTO's own 2026 outlook suggests the bulk of tariff impact on trade volumes is only now landing.
BOJ policy rate at 1.25 percent versus Fed at 3.75-4.00 percent
Asymmetry A widening rate differential with the BOJ tightening cycle only partially closing the gap keeps carry-trade unwind risk elevated.
30-year Treasury yield at 5.61 percent as of October 1, 2026
Asymmetry A policy-driven yield rise compounded by fiscal and debt-outlook concern, radiating pressure directly into real estate and gold valuations; this crosses two indicator domains (sovereign_debt and financial_stability) satisfying the regime-change evidentiary discipline.
Fed hikes to 3.75-4.00 percent amid stagflationary pressure as weak jobs report reopens NBFI cascade risk
Top judgments
The Fed, ECB and BOJ all tightened within the same month while facing weakening or conflict-driven inflation pressure, a policy-coherence risk that heightens the chance of a coordination error heading into the October 28-30 convergence window.
Market pricing for the October Fed meeting has over-extrapolated a single weak payrolls print against a Fed reaction function that has historically weighted the unemployment rate, which only ticked up modestly, over the payroll headline.
The private-credit redemption gating at Blue Owl and Cliffwater, combined with a record 6.3 percent default rate, represents a data-confirmed escalation of NBFI stress that current FMS tail-risk rankings have not yet caught up to.
Showing 3 of 4 key judgments.
Grouped by what each indicator tells you rather than as a flat list of twelve, so it is visible when the slow anchors and the fast tactical readings disagree — which is the current condition. A class with no admitted indicator is shown as a declared gap. Fields marked ◇ are shape-correct placeholders the pipeline does not emit yet.
12 tracked · 5 with a reading · 6 periods of history
Not shown this cycle: distance to trigger and time held in state. The published state carries the reading and the state, not the threshold distance behind it; these appear once a cycle publishes with the fuller indicator record.
Thresholds are analyst-set on 5 of 12 wires: no sourced calibration record was located this cycle, so distance-to-trigger measures the distance to our own stated level, not to a published one.
| Indicator | Reading | 1p | 4p | 13p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Private credit default rate proxy rising = risk US private-credit market default rate. | 6.3% | base period unavailable | base period unavailable | insufficient history |
| Indicator | Reading | 1p | 4p | 13p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Effective tariff rate proxy rising = risk Weighted-average effective US tariff rate across trading partners. | 11.8% | base period unavailable | base period unavailable | base period unavailable |
| Hyperscaler capex growth rising = risk Year-on-year growth in trailing hyperscaler capital expenditure. | 36% | base period unavailable | base period unavailable | base period unavailable |
| 30-year Treasury yield rising = risk US 30-year Treasury constant maturity yield. | 5.61% | base period unavailable | +0.34 | insufficient history |
| Indicator | Reading | 1p | 4p | 13p |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shiller CAPE Cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio for US equities. | no reading | base period unavailable | base period unavailable | base period unavailable |
| S&P 500 top-10 weight Concentration of the top 10 S&P 500 constituents by index weight. | no reading | base period unavailable | base period unavailable | base period unavailable |
| Margin debt, year on year Year-on-year growth in FINRA-reported broker-dealer margin debt. | no reading | base period unavailable | base period unavailable | base period unavailable |
| ISM services PMI Institute for Supply Management services sector purchasing managers index. | no reading | base period unavailable | base period unavailable | base period unavailable |
| U6 underemployment Broad US underemployment rate including marginally attached and part-time-for-economic-reasons workers. | no reading | base period unavailable | base period unavailable | base period unavailable |
| High-yield OAS rising = risk ICE BofA US High Yield Index option-adjusted spread. | value withheld — rights holder | +58 | +59 | insufficient history |
| BDC discount to NAV Business development company composite discount to net asset value. | no reading | base period unavailable | base period unavailable | base period unavailable |
| Auction indirect bid Share of indirect bidders at US Treasury auctions, a proxy for foreign demand. | no reading | base period unavailable | base period unavailable | base period unavailable |
The band is the pipeline's own top-line assessment per jurisdiction. A jurisdiction with no admitted band is shown unclassified rather than assigned a benign one.
| Jurisdiction | Overall stress | Trajectory | Monetary | Fiscal | External |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | ELEVATED | Worsening | Tightening | Deteriorating | MEDIUM |
| EU | MODERATE | Stable | Tightening | Stable | MEDIUM |
| China | MODERATE | Stable | Easing | Stable | MEDIUM |
| Japan | MODERATE | Stable | Tightening | Stable | MEDIUM |
| UK | LOW | Stable | Neutral | Stable | LOW |
| Emerging Markets | MODERATE | Improving | Neutral | Stable | LOW |
| Gulf/MENA | HIGH | Worsening | Neutral | Deteriorating | HIGH |
A daily credit spread, a monthly PMI and a quarterly default rate cannot share one "last updated" label without misleading someone. Page-level freshness reports when we published. Indicator-level freshness reports how old the information is. This audience checks the second.
12 tracked · 5 with a reading · 7 without
Dates below are the reference period of each reading, not the date it was retrieved.
| Indicator | Observation | Quality | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auction indirect bid | no observation | unavailable | TreasuryDirect auction results |
| BDC discount to NAV | no observation | unavailable | BDC composite |
| ISM services PMI | no observation | unavailable | ISM |
| Margin debt, year on year | no observation | unavailable | FINRA monthly statistics |
| S&P 500 top-10 weight | no observation | unavailable | Index composition |
| Shiller CAPE | no observation | unavailable | Shiller / Yale |
| U6 underemployment | no observation | unavailable | BLS |
| Effective tariff rate proxy | estimated | Tax Foundation | |
| Hyperscaler capex growth | estimated | CreditSights | |
| Private credit default rate proxy | estimated | Yardeni Research (citing Fitch) | |
| 30-year Treasury yield | ok | FRED | |
| High-yield OAS | ok | FRED |
2 of 12 wires are proxies: no free primary series exists, so a stand-in is published and labelled.
If the pipeline has not advanced data_observed_through by Sunday 14:00 UTC, the board shows a stale banner rather than re-serving last week's readings as current. Any row here opens its source in the right-hand drawer — publisher, series identifier, URL, tier and revision policy.
Showing 5 of 10 developments.
A tail risk stays on the board between cycles. When a row is carried rather than re-derived this cycle it is labelled persist-last, so a stale row is never read as a fresh one.
| Tail risk | Scenario | Probability read | Last update |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hormuz closure and energy shock risk | Base Case | Likelihood held at 0.55; no new escalation or de-escalation confirmed this cycle, reaffirmed from prior assessment | 2026-10-04 |
| NBFI and private-credit redemption cascade | Fast Cascade | Likelihood raised to 0.4 on fresh evidence of Blue Owl and Cliffwater redemption gating, a concrete escalation versus prior cycles | 2026-10-04 |
| Sovereign debt and EM stress | De-escalation | Likelihood held at 0.25, trending decreasing; EM portfolio flows positive for a second consecutive month with no reversal evidence this cycle | 2026-10-04 |
| Tariff escalation to T4/T5 | Base Case | Likelihood held at 0.15, trending decreasing; no new evidence of multi-partner coordinated retaliation this cycle | 2026-10-04 |
| AI-capex and concentration unwind risk | Fast Cascade | Likelihood held at 0.3, trending increasing; Alphabet first negative free-cash-flow quarter combined with record 33 percent FMS share flagging semiconductor over-investment | 2026-10-04 |
Two boards that answer different questions about the same stress. The first asks which parts of the credit system are under pressure and whether that pressure is spreading. The second asks what the debt arithmetic is doing under the entities the first depends on.
Credit stress by segment
Credit stress by segment, ordered worst first.
There is no dedicated credit-stress field upstream. These segments are constructed from module_7 risk vectors and credit-domain indicator readings; the source of each row is named beneath its segment.
| Segment | Stress | Direction | Contagion | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign / EM Spreads GMM module_7 risk vectors | High | Deteriorating | High | EM sovereign spreads widening per BIS/IIF data; euro area periphery spreads reversed narrowing trend |
| Private Credit / NBFI GMM module_7 risk vectors | High | Deteriorating | Moderate | ECB FSR May 2026 explicitly flags stress in global private credit markets; BIS documents AI hyperscalers financing capex with debt |
| Liquidity / Funding GMM module_7 risk vectors | Moderate | Stable | Low | Energy derivatives margin calls met without disorderly deleveraging; swap lines renewed; no acute stress |
| Commercial Real Estate GMM scoring_breakdown indicators | Moderate | Stable | Low | Fed Sloos: stress; direction Stable |
| Banking / G-SIBs GMM module_7 risk vectors | Low | Stable | Low | No acute banking sector stress this cycle; ECB FSR notes market functioning orderly |
Sovereign debt dynamics
Only entities carrying a live indicator reading this cycle appear. An entity we track but did not read is listed as omitted rather than shown with a placeholder verdict.
Sovereign and systemic debt pressure, by entity, from this cycle indicator readings.
| Entity | Direction | Key risk and source |
|---|---|---|
| United States | Deteriorating | Federal debt trajectory and deficit dynamics; US debt/GDP elevated at post-WWII levels CBO / Bipartisan Policy Center via GMM scoring |
| Japan | Deteriorating | JGB yield curve pressure; BoJ YCC normalisation risk; world's largest sovereign debt/GDP BoJ / Trading Economics via GMM scoring |
| Emerging Markets (aggregate) | Improving | EMBI GD spread widening; Fragile Five exposure; commodity-shock pass-through to debt service IMF / IIF EMBI data via GMM scoring |
| EM Central Banks (reserve diversification) | Improving | EM CBs accelerating gold/reserve diversification away from Treasuries; custody migration signal World Gold Council via GMM scoring |
| Global Liquidity / Monetisation | Stable Trajectory: Unknown | Nominal M2 growth without real-economy support (Nominal M2 Mirage blind-spot rule); monetisation risk Federal Reserve H.6 via GMM scoring |
Tariff and trade actions are recorded as measures taken by a named actor. Pending items upstream has not attributed to anyone are held in a separate watchlist below the table, because a thing somebody might do and a thing somebody has done should not read as the same kind of fact.
Announced and in-force trade measures, and where the escalation currently stands.
Regime. The current rung is T3, reaffirmed from the structural post-SCOTUS baseline. No new multi-partner coordinated retaliation or fresh WTO panel action was identified within this collection window. The effective weighted tariff rate is approximately 11.8 percent.
No new escalation identified within this collection window; tariff regime holds at the T3 structural baseline established following the Section 122 lapse.
Every indicator is stamped with the tier of the source behind it. The tier is on the row, on the detail panel and in the evidence drawer, so a reader never has to assume that two numbers on the same board carry the same weight.
As of: authored date not yet recorded. This text is written by hand and is not regenerated each cycle; see how freshness is stated.
| Tier | What it is | Examples | May establish a flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| T1 | Official statistical | BLS, ISM, FRED series, Treasury, FINRA | Yes |
| T2 | Academic / reference | Shiller / Yale, BIS, IMF, World Bank | Yes |
| T3 | Vendor / index | Index composition, BDC composites | Yes |
| T4 | Practitioner research | Named sell-side or manager research, attributed | No |
| T5 | General press | Wire and business press | No |
Where tiers conflict, the higher tier stands and the conflict is published. A T5 source may provide colour but is never used to establish a flag. One tripwire currently breaches this rule and is marked.
A gap is something we know is missing and have not built. A blind spot is a way our existing indicators mislead us while appearing to work — those are on the posture map, because they bear on interpretation rather than on measurement.
Research gaps carried by the analysis · 10 gaps
GAP-501 IIF Global Debt Monitor and Capital Flow Tracker primary report not directly retrieved this cycle; EM flow claims rely on IMF GFSR EPFR-citing data.
Affects · gmm-int-2026-08-11-0015, gmm-int-2026-08-11-0016
GAP-502 BofA Global Fund Manager Survey and CME FedWatch positioning data not retrieved this cycle, leaving sentiment_overlay partially null.
GAP-503 Federal Reserve SLOOS quarterly release not confirmed this cycle, leaving Banking Sector Stress rated on an absence-of-signal basis.
GAP-101 IIF Global Debt Monitor not directly retrieved; EM debt sustainability claims sourced via IMF GFSR EPFR-cited data.
Affects · gmm-int-2026-08-04-0016, gmm-int-2026-08-04-0036
GAP-102 BofA Global Fund Manager Survey and CME FedWatch positioning data unavailable this cycle.
Affects · gmm-int-2026-08-04-0004
GAP-103 WTO dispute status inferred from secondary sources rather than a direct WTO press release.
Affects · gmm-int-2026-08-04-0021
GAP-001 A confirmed Bank of England primary-source rate decision would resolve the standing UK monetary-stance coverage gap.
GAP-002 A fresh weekly EPFR or IIF capital-flow print would allow formal classification of any EM capital-flow reversal.
GAP-003 A second independent source confirming June commodity price decline percentages would allow SA classification.
GAP-004 Clarification of the nature of the IMF-referenced renewed Hormuz escalation would allow recalibration of tail-risk likelihood.
Macro series revise. ISM revises, BLS benchmarks annually, FINRA restates. When a number we published changes, the new value is written as a new vintage and the old one stays readable — so history shows what was knowable at the time, not what we know now.
Pending We are collecting the point-in-time corrections ledger. Why nothing is shown
◇ Illustrative entries. The vintage fields that make this surface real do not exist yet — this is the shape they produce.
Before you use this board
Twelve indicators are a starting cut, not a complete macro framework. What is missing, why each threshold sits where it does, and what each source does on revision — all on the method page.