Risk monitor

US Macro Risk Monitor

Twelve tripwires in three classes — strategic anchors, cyclical confirmation, tactical stress. Each carries a live value, a warn level, a trigger level, the distance between them and the tier of the source it came from.

Scope: United States Weekly, Sunday 12:00 UTC Board calculated 25 Aug

Titled by scope on purpose. Every deterministic source below is a US publisher — FRED, BLS, ISM, FINRA, TreasuryDirect, Shiller, Treasury customs. Non-US coverage is not built yet and the title does not imply it. This surface reports observations only; what we make of them is on the posture map.

Board condition

7armed

0watch

0fired

4no data

1tier-excluded

This is a count of measured states, not a directional call. A board with nothing fired and four indicators dark is a board with limited coverage — that is information, and hiding it would be the misleading choice.

Aggregate posture

65 Composite, 0 = risk off, 100 = risk on

Risk offNeutralRisk on

A single scalar over twelve heterogeneous indicators, four of which are dark. Published because a summary is useful, alongside the component board so it can always be checked against its parts. Its directional reading belongs on the posture map, not here.

The board

Grouped by class · click any row for thresholds, tier and evidence

Grouped by what each indicator tells you rather than as a flat list of twelve, so it is visible when the slow anchors and the fast tactical readings disagree — which is the current condition. A class with no admitted indicator is shown as a declared gap. Fields marked ◇ are shape-correct placeholders the pipeline does not emit yet.

Strategic Anchor (SA)

4 indicators · 2 armed · 2 no data

Slow-moving level. Tells you what regime you are in, not what week it is. A breach is a regime statement.

watch 43×trigger 45×3.8× to triggerscale spans both thresholds and the reading

Value: 41.2×
Warn at: 43×
Trigger at: 45×
Direction: Fires above
Distance to warn ◇: 1.8× away
Distance to trigger ◇: 3.8× away
Rate of change ◇: +0.6 / 3m
Periods in state ◇: 14 cycles
Source: Shiller / Yale
Source tier: T2 — Academic / reference
Classification: Strategic Anchor (SA)
Cadence: Monthly
Threshold basis ◇: percentile
Observed through ◇: 2026-07-31
Next expected ◇: 2026-09-01

98.9th percentile since 1881. Only 18 higher months on record, all 1999–2000.

Opens the source, its tier and its revision policy in the right-hand drawer

Blind spot — Earnings suppression. A valuation ratio falls when earnings are inflated by one-off or accounting effects, printing a false green on the anchors. Where the denominator is suspect the CAPE reading is annotated, not adjusted.

watch 43%trigger 45%5% to triggerscale spans both thresholds and the reading

Value: 40%
Warn at: 43%
Trigger at: 45%
Direction: Fires above
Distance to warn ◇: 3% away
Distance to trigger ◇: 5% away
Rate of change ◇: +0.7 / 3m
Periods in state ◇: 11 cycles
Source: Index composition
Source tier: T3 — Vendor / index
Classification: Strategic Anchor (SA)
Cadence: Monthly
Threshold basis ◇: percentile
Observed through ◇: 2026-07-31
Next expected ◇: 2026-09-01

Versus roughly 27% at the dot-com peak.

Opens the source, its tier and its revision policy in the right-hand drawer

watch 22%trigger 30%no reading yetscale spans both thresholds and the reading

Value: —
Warn at: 22%
Trigger at: 30%
Direction: Fires above
Distance to warn ◇: —
Distance to trigger ◇: —
Rate of change ◇: —
Periods in state ◇: —
Source: FINRA monthly statistics
Source tier: T1 — Official statistical
Classification: Strategic Anchor (SA)
Cadence: Monthly
Threshold basis ◇: empirical_calibration
Observed through ◇: —
Next expected ◇: —

Awaiting first automated read from FINRA monthly statistics.

Not yet wired. Deterministically fetchable. Not yet wired.

Opens the source, its tier and its revision policy in the right-hand drawer

watch 17%trigger 20%no reading yetscale spans both thresholds and the reading

Value: —
Warn at: 17%
Trigger at: 20%
Direction: Fires above
Distance to warn ◇: —
Distance to trigger ◇: —
Rate of change ◇: —
Periods in state ◇: —
Source: US Treasury customs receipts
Source tier: T1 — Official statistical
Classification: Strategic Anchor (SA)
Cadence: Monthly
Threshold basis ◇: analyst_judgement
Observed through ◇: —
Next expected ◇: —

Only fires alongside fiscal consolidation into a contraction.

Not yet wired. Derivable from customs receipts / imports. Not yet wired.

Opens the source, its tier and its revision policy in the right-hand drawer

Not mapped in R25. Assigned by inference: an effective tariff rate is a policy-regime level, not a cycle reading.

Cycle Coincident (CC)

3 indicators · 2 armed · 1 no data

Moves with the cycle. Confirms or denies that the expansion is intact. Revised often, so watch the direction more than the level.

watch 10%trigger 0%no reading yetscale spans both thresholds and the reading

Value: —
Warn at: 10%
Trigger at: 0%
Direction: Fires below
Distance to warn ◇: —
Distance to trigger ◇: —
Rate of change ◇: —
Periods in state ◇: —
Source: Company filings (10-Q)
Source tier: T1 — Official statistical
Classification: Cycle Coincident (CC)
Cadence: Quarterly
Threshold basis ◇: analyst_judgement
Observed through ◇: —
Next expected ◇: —

Fires on negative growth plus extended depreciation schedules. Over $690bn committed FY26.

Not yet wired. No automated read. Requires a filings extractor the pipeline does not have.

Opens the source, its tier and its revision policy in the right-hand drawer

watch 51trigger 486.1 to triggerscale spans both thresholds and the reading

Value: 54.1
Warn at: 51
Trigger at: 48
Direction: Fires below
Distance to warn ◇: 3.1 away
Distance to trigger ◇: 6.1 away
Rate of change ◇: -0.9 / 3m
Periods in state ◇: 22 cycles
Source: ISM
Source tier: T1 — Official statistical
Classification: Cycle Coincident (CC)
Cadence: Monthly
Threshold basis ◇: source_defined
Observed through ◇: 2026-07-31
Next expected ◇: 2026-09-03

Trigger requires three consecutive months below 48.

Opens the source, its tier and its revision policy in the right-hand drawer

watch 8.8%trigger 9.5%1.6% to triggerscale spans both thresholds and the reading

Value: 7.9%
Warn at: 8.8%
Trigger at: 9.5%
Direction: Fires above
Distance to warn ◇: 0.9% away
Distance to trigger ◇: 1.6% away
Rate of change ◇: +0.2 / 3m
Periods in state ◇: 6 cycles
Source: BLS LNS13327709
Source tier: T1 — Official statistical
Classification: Cycle Coincident (CC)
Cadence: Monthly
Threshold basis ◇: empirical_calibration
Observed through ◇: 2026-07-31
Next expected ◇: 2026-09-04

Only meaningful while U3 stays below 5% — the divergence is the tell. U3 now 4.1%.

Opens the source, its tier and its revision policy in the right-hand drawer

Tactical Signal (TS)

5 indicators · 4 armed · 1 no data

Fast, market-priced, noisy. Fires early and un-fires early. Never a regime call on its own.

watch 400 bpstrigger 450 bps180 bps to triggerscale spans both thresholds and the reading

Value: 270 bps
Warn at: 400 bps
Trigger at: 450 bps
Direction: Fires above
Distance to warn ◇: 130 bps away
Distance to trigger ◇: 180 bps away
Rate of change ◇: -12 / 4w
Periods in state ◇: 9 cycles
Source: FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2
Source tier: T1 — Official statistical
Classification: Tactical Signal (TS)
Cadence: Daily
Threshold basis ◇: literature
Observed through ◇: 2026-08-22
Next expected ◇: 2026-08-26

Sustained one month above trigger. Above 700 flips to the deflationary-bust pathway.

Opens the source, its tier and its revision policy in the right-hand drawer

Blind spot — Spread compression under scarcity. High-yield spreads can tighten because issuance has stopped, not because credit has improved. A tight spread on collapsing issuance is a false green and is flagged when issuance data is available.

watch 5.5%trigger 5.75%0.42% to triggerscale spans both thresholds and the reading

Value: 5.33%
Warn at: 5.5%
Trigger at: 5.75%
Direction: Fires above
Distance to warn ◇: 0.17% away
Distance to trigger ◇: 0.42% away
Rate of change ◇: +0.14 / 4w
Periods in state ◇: 3 cycles
Source: FRED DGS30
Source tier: T1 — Official statistical
Classification: Tactical Signal (TS)
Cadence: Daily
Threshold basis ◇: analyst_judgement
Observed through ◇: 2026-08-22
Next expected ◇: 2026-08-26

Only counts as a fire if bear-steepening while the Fed is cutting.

Opens the source, its tier and its revision policy in the right-hand drawer

Blind spot — Nominal M2 mirage. Nominal money aggregates grow with inflation, so a liquidity reading taken in nominal terms looks supportive during exactly the regime that is destroying real balances. Liquidity is read in real terms or not at all.

watch 7%trigger 8%2% to triggerscale spans both thresholds and the reading

Value: 6%
Warn at: 7%
Trigger at: 8%
Direction: Fires above
Distance to warn ◇: 1% away
Distance to trigger ◇: 2% away
Rate of change ◇: +0.4 / 2q
Periods in state ◇: 5 cycles
Source: Lincoln International / press
Source tier: T5 — General press
Classification: Tactical Signal (TS)
Cadence: Quarterly
Threshold basis ◇: empirical_calibration
Observed through ◇: 2026-04-30
Next expected ◇: 2026-10-15

Fully-loaded basis including amendments. Record high as of April 2026.

Opens the source, its tier and its revision policy in the right-hand drawer

Stale. Source has not published since April. 117 days beyond cadence.

Source-tier breach. T5 press source establishing a flag. The site's own published T1–T5 rule (K1) forbids this. Shown, flagged, and excluded from the aggregate count until a T1–T3 substitute is found.

Blind spot — Private-credit opacity. Marks are model-derived and lag. Amendments suppress the default rate. The reported number is a floor, not an estimate.

watch 30%trigger 35%9% to triggerscale spans both thresholds and the reading

Value: 26%
Warn at: 30%
Trigger at: 35%
Direction: Fires above
Distance to warn ◇: 4% away
Distance to trigger ◇: 9% away
Rate of change ◇: +1.8 / 4w
Periods in state ◇: 4 cycles
Source: BDC composite
Source tier: T3 — Vendor / index
Classification: Tactical Signal (TS)
Cadence: Monthly
Threshold basis ◇: percentile
Observed through ◇: 2026-08-15
Next expected ◇: 2026-09-15

Trigger requires discount plus redemption gates on evergreen vehicles.

Opens the source, its tier and its revision policy in the right-hand drawer

Not mapped in R25. Assigned by inference: a discount to NAV is a stress price, not an anchor.

Blind spot — Private-credit opacity. Marks are model-derived and lag. Amendments suppress the default rate. The reported number is a floor, not an estimate.

watch 63%trigger 60%no reading yetscale spans both thresholds and the reading

Value: —
Warn at: 63%
Trigger at: 60%
Direction: Fires below
Distance to warn ◇: —
Distance to trigger ◇: —
Rate of change ◇: —
Periods in state ◇: —
Source: TreasuryDirect auction results
Source tier: T1 — Official statistical
Classification: Tactical Signal (TS)
Cadence: Per auction
Threshold basis ◇: empirical_calibration
Observed through ◇: —
Next expected ◇: —

Foreign demand proxy on long-end auctions. Awaiting first automated read.

Not yet wired. Deterministically fetchable. Not yet wired.

Opens the source, its tier and its revision policy in the right-hand drawer

Inflation & policy expectations

0 indicators

Declared gap. No indicator yet admitted. R19 names this as the largest hole in the framework: inflation momentum, policy-path expectations and real rates are all absent. Declared rather than hidden.

Freshness, per indicator

Not per page

A daily credit spread, a monthly PMI and a quarterly default rate cannot share one "last updated" label without misleading someone. Page-level freshness reports when we published. Indicator-level freshness reports how old the information is. This audience checks the second.

Indicator	Class	Tier	Cadence	Observed through	Next expected	State	Evidence
High-yield OAS	TS	T1	Daily	2026-08-22	2026-08-26	Fresh	1 →
30-year Treasury yield	TS	T1	Daily	2026-08-22	2026-08-26	Fresh	1 →
Private credit default rate	TS	T5 !	Quarterly	2026-04-30	2026-10-15	Stale	1 →
BDC discount to NAV	TS	T3	Monthly	2026-08-15	2026-09-15	Fresh	2 →
Hyperscaler capex growth	CC	T1	Quarterly	—	—	Never read	1 →
Shiller CAPE	SA	T2	Monthly	2026-07-31	2026-09-01	Fresh	2 →
S&P 500 top-10 weight	SA	T3	Monthly	2026-07-31	2026-09-01	Fresh	1 →
Margin debt, year on year	SA	T1	Monthly	—	—	Never read	1 →
ISM services PMI	CC	T1	Monthly	2026-07-31	2026-09-03	Fresh	1 →
U6 underemployment	CC	T1	Monthly	2026-07-31	2026-09-04	Fresh	1 →
Auction indirect bid	TS	T1	Per auction	—	—	Never read	1 →
Effective tariff rate	SA	T1	Monthly	—	—	Never read	1 →

If the pipeline has not advanced data_observed_through by Sunday 14:00 UTC, the board shows a stale banner rather than re-serving last week's readings as current. Any row here opens its source in the right-hand drawer — publisher, series identifier, URL, tier and revision policy.

Source tiers

What a number has to come from to be published here

Every indicator is stamped with the tier of the source behind it. The tier is on the row, on the detail panel and in the evidence drawer, so a reader never has to assume that two numbers on the same board carry the same weight.

Tier	What it is	Examples	May establish a flag
T1	Official statistical	BLS, ISM, FRED series, Treasury, FINRA	Yes
T2	Academic / reference	Shiller / Yale, BIS, IMF, World Bank	Yes
T3	Vendor / index	Index composition, BDC composites	Yes
T4	Practitioner research	Named sell-side or manager research, attributed	No
T5	General press	Wire and business press	No

Where tiers conflict, the higher tier stands and the conflict is published. A T5 source may provide colour but is never used to establish a flag. One tripwire currently breaches this rule and is marked.

What this board does not see

Registered gaps · held separately from blind spots

A gap is something we know is missing and have not built. A blind spot is a way our existing indicators mislead us while appearing to work — those are on the posture map, because they bear on interpretation rather than on measurement.

Investor positioning / sentiment overlay. BofA Fund Manager Survey not licensed. The sentiment_overlay field is null on every edition and will stay null until it is. Named so the empty field is not read as neutral.

Inflation momentum and policy-path expectations. No admitted indicator. The largest hole in the framework: inflation momentum, real rates and the priced policy path are all absent, in a regime the model itself calls stagflation.

Cross-asset correlation model. No correlation structure. The matrix reports directional stress per cell and cannot say whether cells move together, which is the question that matters in a cascade.

Real-time flow data. Weekly cadence and no flow feed. A gate or redemption event inside the week is invisible until the next edition.

Registered gaps are known unknowns: named, dated, and reducible by buying or building a feed. Epistemic blind spots (above) are structural — they cannot be closed by adding data, only annotated. They are held separately on purpose, because collapsing them makes the first look permanent and the second look fixable.

Recent revisions

Every observation is versioned, never overwritten

Macro series revise. ISM revises, BLS benchmarks annually, FINRA restates. When a number we published changes, the new value is written as a new vintage and the old one stays readable — so history shows what was knowable at the time, not what we know now.

Date	Indicator	Was	Now	Reason	Vintage
2026-08-19	ISM services PMI	54.3	54.1	Source revision, July print	v2
2026-08-12	U6 underemployment	7.8	7.9	BLS annual benchmark revision	v2
2026-07-29	BDC discount to NAV	24	25	Composite constituent change	v2

◇ Illustrative entries. The vintage fields that make this surface real do not exist yet — this is the shape they produce.

Before you use this board

Inclusion criteria, threshold basis and known limits are published.

Twelve indicators are a starting cut, not a complete macro framework. What is missing, why each threshold sits where it does, and what each source does on revision — all on the method page.

Read the method →