United States
Tracked continuously since issue 1. This page carries the running assessment — not a weekly restatement, but what has accumulated, including where the view has changed.
Running assessment
Cumulative · written from the structured recordThe US entered this cycle with a labour market that looked resilient on the headline rate and progressively less so underneath it. U6 has risen for six consecutive cycles while U3 has held near 4.1% — the divergence, rather than either level, is what the record has been tracking.
Services activity has decelerated steadily without breaking: ISM services has printed above 54 for twenty-two consecutive cycles, but the trend across the last twelve is unambiguously down. Nothing in the series yet meets the three-consecutive-months-below-48 condition that would mark a services contraction.
The material change this cycle is on the fiscal and trade side. Tariff protection has now been imposed, struck down, and re-imposed under a different statutory basis three times in six months. The record treats the instability of the legal basis as the risk factor, distinct from the level of the tariff itself.
Beneath continued equity strength, the financing mix of the AI buildout has shifted toward debt. That converts what has been read as an equity valuation question into a credit question, and it is the reason the credit channel now carries four tracked indicators rather than three.
Composed from the structured record for this entity, not written free-hand. Every claim above resolves to a stored observation or a dated judgment.
Where the view changed
3 recorded reversalsPreviously the AI capex story was tracked in the valuation channel on the view that it was an equity-multiple question. Reclassified once BIS flagged the leverage build. The earlier classification remains on file.
Through issues 1–4 the effective tariff rate was the tracked variable. After the second judicial invalidation the tracked variable became the durability of the statutory basis.
The headline rate stopped being informative once participation effects dominated. The spread was substituted as the tracked variable and the threshold was recalibrated accordingly.
◇ Illustrative. Requires the per-entity change log that cumulative storage makes possible.
Indicators for this jurisdiction
The full board — every admitted series is a US seriesStrategic Anchor (SA)
4 indicators · 2 armed · 2 no dataSlow-moving level. Tells you what regime you are in, not what week it is. A breach is a regime statement.
- Value
- 41.2×
- Warn at
- 43×
- Trigger at
- 45×
- Direction
- Fires above
- Distance to warn ◇
- 1.8× away
- Distance to trigger ◇
- 3.8× away
- Rate of change ◇
- +0.6 / 3m
- Periods in state ◇
- 14 cycles
- Source
- Shiller / Yale
- Source tier
- T2 — Academic / reference
- Classification
- Strategic Anchor (SA)
- Cadence
- Monthly
- Threshold basis ◇
- percentile
- Observed through ◇
- 2026-07-31
- Next expected ◇
- 2026-09-01
98.9th percentile since 1881. Only 18 higher months on record, all 1999–2000.
Blind spot — Earnings suppression. A valuation ratio falls when earnings are inflated by one-off or accounting effects, printing a false green on the anchors. Where the denominator is suspect the CAPE reading is annotated, not adjusted.
- Value
- 40%
- Warn at
- 43%
- Trigger at
- 45%
- Direction
- Fires above
- Distance to warn ◇
- 3% away
- Distance to trigger ◇
- 5% away
- Rate of change ◇
- +0.7 / 3m
- Periods in state ◇
- 11 cycles
- Source
- Index composition
- Source tier
- T3 — Vendor / index
- Classification
- Strategic Anchor (SA)
- Cadence
- Monthly
- Threshold basis ◇
- percentile
- Observed through ◇
- 2026-07-31
- Next expected ◇
- 2026-09-01
Versus roughly 27% at the dot-com peak.
Blind spot — Earnings suppression. A valuation ratio falls when earnings are inflated by one-off or accounting effects, printing a false green on the anchors. Where the denominator is suspect the CAPE reading is annotated, not adjusted.
- Value
- —
- Warn at
- 22%
- Trigger at
- 30%
- Direction
- Fires above
- Distance to warn ◇
- —
- Distance to trigger ◇
- —
- Rate of change ◇
- —
- Periods in state ◇
- —
- Source
- FINRA monthly statistics
- Source tier
- T1 — Official statistical
- Classification
- Strategic Anchor (SA)
- Cadence
- Monthly
- Threshold basis ◇
- empirical_calibration
- Observed through ◇
- —
- Next expected ◇
- —
Awaiting first automated read from FINRA monthly statistics.
Not yet wired. Deterministically fetchable. Not yet wired.
- Value
- —
- Warn at
- 17%
- Trigger at
- 20%
- Direction
- Fires above
- Distance to warn ◇
- —
- Distance to trigger ◇
- —
- Rate of change ◇
- —
- Periods in state ◇
- —
- Source
- US Treasury customs receipts
- Source tier
- T1 — Official statistical
- Classification
- Strategic Anchor (SA)
- Cadence
- Monthly
- Threshold basis ◇
- analyst_judgement
- Observed through ◇
- —
- Next expected ◇
- —
Only fires alongside fiscal consolidation into a contraction.
Not yet wired. Derivable from customs receipts / imports. Not yet wired.
Not mapped in R25. Assigned by inference: an effective tariff rate is a policy-regime level, not a cycle reading.
Cycle Coincident (CC)
3 indicators · 2 armed · 1 no dataMoves with the cycle. Confirms or denies that the expansion is intact. Revised often, so watch the direction more than the level.
- Value
- —
- Warn at
- 10%
- Trigger at
- 0%
- Direction
- Fires below
- Distance to warn ◇
- —
- Distance to trigger ◇
- —
- Rate of change ◇
- —
- Periods in state ◇
- —
- Source
- Company filings (10-Q)
- Source tier
- T1 — Official statistical
- Classification
- Cycle Coincident (CC)
- Cadence
- Quarterly
- Threshold basis ◇
- analyst_judgement
- Observed through ◇
- —
- Next expected ◇
- —
Fires on negative growth plus extended depreciation schedules. Over $690bn committed FY26.
Not yet wired. No automated read. Requires a filings extractor the pipeline does not have.
- Value
- 54.1
- Warn at
- 51
- Trigger at
- 48
- Direction
- Fires below
- Distance to warn ◇
- 3.1 away
- Distance to trigger ◇
- 6.1 away
- Rate of change ◇
- -0.9 / 3m
- Periods in state ◇
- 22 cycles
- Source
- ISM
- Source tier
- T1 — Official statistical
- Classification
- Cycle Coincident (CC)
- Cadence
- Monthly
- Threshold basis ◇
- source_defined
- Observed through ◇
- 2026-07-31
- Next expected ◇
- 2026-09-03
Trigger requires three consecutive months below 48.
- Value
- 7.9%
- Warn at
- 8.8%
- Trigger at
- 9.5%
- Direction
- Fires above
- Distance to warn ◇
- 0.9% away
- Distance to trigger ◇
- 1.6% away
- Rate of change ◇
- +0.2 / 3m
- Periods in state ◇
- 6 cycles
- Source
- BLS LNS13327709
- Source tier
- T1 — Official statistical
- Classification
- Cycle Coincident (CC)
- Cadence
- Monthly
- Threshold basis ◇
- empirical_calibration
- Observed through ◇
- 2026-07-31
- Next expected ◇
- 2026-09-04
Only meaningful while U3 stays below 5% — the divergence is the tell. U3 now 4.1%.
Tactical Signal (TS)
5 indicators · 4 armed · 1 no dataFast, market-priced, noisy. Fires early and un-fires early. Never a regime call on its own.
- Value
- 270 bps
- Warn at
- 400 bps
- Trigger at
- 450 bps
- Direction
- Fires above
- Distance to warn ◇
- 130 bps away
- Distance to trigger ◇
- 180 bps away
- Rate of change ◇
- -12 / 4w
- Periods in state ◇
- 9 cycles
- Source
- FRED BAMLH0A0HYM2
- Source tier
- T1 — Official statistical
- Classification
- Tactical Signal (TS)
- Cadence
- Daily
- Threshold basis ◇
- literature
- Observed through ◇
- 2026-08-22
- Next expected ◇
- 2026-08-26
Sustained one month above trigger. Above 700 flips to the deflationary-bust pathway.
Blind spot — Spread compression under scarcity. High-yield spreads can tighten because issuance has stopped, not because credit has improved. A tight spread on collapsing issuance is a false green and is flagged when issuance data is available.
- Value
- 5.33%
- Warn at
- 5.5%
- Trigger at
- 5.75%
- Direction
- Fires above
- Distance to warn ◇
- 0.17% away
- Distance to trigger ◇
- 0.42% away
- Rate of change ◇
- +0.14 / 4w
- Periods in state ◇
- 3 cycles
- Source
- FRED DGS30
- Source tier
- T1 — Official statistical
- Classification
- Tactical Signal (TS)
- Cadence
- Daily
- Threshold basis ◇
- analyst_judgement
- Observed through ◇
- 2026-08-22
- Next expected ◇
- 2026-08-26
Only counts as a fire if bear-steepening while the Fed is cutting.
Blind spot — Nominal M2 mirage. Nominal money aggregates grow with inflation, so a liquidity reading taken in nominal terms looks supportive during exactly the regime that is destroying real balances. Liquidity is read in real terms or not at all.
- Value
- 6%
- Warn at
- 7%
- Trigger at
- 8%
- Direction
- Fires above
- Distance to warn ◇
- 1% away
- Distance to trigger ◇
- 2% away
- Rate of change ◇
- +0.4 / 2q
- Periods in state ◇
- 5 cycles
- Source
- Lincoln International / press
- Source tier
- T5 — General press
- Classification
- Tactical Signal (TS)
- Cadence
- Quarterly
- Threshold basis ◇
- empirical_calibration
- Observed through ◇
- 2026-04-30
- Next expected ◇
- 2026-10-15
Fully-loaded basis including amendments. Record high as of April 2026.
Stale. Source has not published since April. 117 days beyond cadence.
Source-tier breach. T5 press source establishing a flag. The site's own published T1–T5 rule (K1) forbids this. Shown, flagged, and excluded from the aggregate count until a T1–T3 substitute is found.
Blind spot — Private-credit opacity. Marks are model-derived and lag. Amendments suppress the default rate. The reported number is a floor, not an estimate.
- Value
- 26%
- Warn at
- 30%
- Trigger at
- 35%
- Direction
- Fires above
- Distance to warn ◇
- 4% away
- Distance to trigger ◇
- 9% away
- Rate of change ◇
- +1.8 / 4w
- Periods in state ◇
- 4 cycles
- Source
- BDC composite
- Source tier
- T3 — Vendor / index
- Classification
- Tactical Signal (TS)
- Cadence
- Monthly
- Threshold basis ◇
- percentile
- Observed through ◇
- 2026-08-15
- Next expected ◇
- 2026-09-15
Trigger requires discount plus redemption gates on evergreen vehicles.
Not mapped in R25. Assigned by inference: a discount to NAV is a stress price, not an anchor.
Blind spot — Private-credit opacity. Marks are model-derived and lag. Amendments suppress the default rate. The reported number is a floor, not an estimate.
- Value
- —
- Warn at
- 63%
- Trigger at
- 60%
- Direction
- Fires below
- Distance to warn ◇
- —
- Distance to trigger ◇
- —
- Rate of change ◇
- —
- Periods in state ◇
- —
- Source
- TreasuryDirect auction results
- Source tier
- T1 — Official statistical
- Classification
- Tactical Signal (TS)
- Cadence
- Per auction
- Threshold basis ◇
- empirical_calibration
- Observed through ◇
- —
- Next expected ◇
- —
Foreign demand proxy on long-end auctions. Awaiting first automated read.
Not yet wired. Deterministically fetchable. Not yet wired.
Blind spot — Nominal M2 mirage. Nominal money aggregates grow with inflation, so a liquidity reading taken in nominal terms looks supportive during exactly the regime that is destroying real balances. Liquidity is read in real terms or not at all.
Inflation & policy expectations
0 indicatorsDeclared gap. No indicator yet admitted. R19 names this as the largest hole in the framework: inflation momentum, policy-path expectations and real rates are all absent. Declared rather than hidden.